The 2025 federal election is rapidly approaching, and the Liberal party is unsure if Justin Trudeau is the best candidate to represent them. While Canadians still have until Oct. 20, 2025 to decide who will emerge as the new prime minister, Trudeau’s unpopularity with the public is exemplified by the 15 to 20-point lead that the Conservatives have over the Liberals in the polls.
Many within the Liberal party think that Trudeau should step down as candidate. An anonymous Liberal MP shared this sentiment in an interview with the CBC: “We would be better off changing leaders for the good of our country.”
Robert Drummond, professor emeritus in the Department of Politics, explains that Trudeau’s decline in popularity can be attributed to the current government’s lack of noticeable results. “Some voters are probably disturbed by the sense that the government has spent a lot without solving many problems; others will resent what they perceive as a central Canadian urban arrogance and a failure to understand the problems of rural Canadians in the East and West,” says Drummond.
He also shares that it’s possible that voters are exhausted from the current government, as it has been in power for so long. “All governments eventually lose support since they will necessarily take actions that don’t please everyone.”
Whatever the reasons for Trudeau’s loss of popularity, the Liberal party still faces the question of whether to replace him before the election. Ousting Trudeau as leader leaves the Liberals with another dilemma: Who should replace him? The list of candidates willing to enter a race, which already seems like a losing battle, is short.
According to Sirvan Karimi, a professor of public policy, a candidate switch would most likely be futile. “Neither a change in leadership, as suggested by some Liberals and their allies, nor a cabinet shuffle can assuage the existing negative political sentiment toward Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party,” says Karimi.
Drummond believes the “Liberals might be better to accept a humiliating defeat and then seek a new leader who can have up to five years to win back the party’s support.”
Despite the crushing polls and the doubts of his party members, there is still hope for Justin Trudeau and his supporters. Polling numbers are not always reflective of who will win an election. Trudeau still has over a year until Canadians cast their ballots to win back the support of the public.
As Karimi notes, “Canadians have a reputation for surprising public pollsters. Voting behaviour is shaped by a range of factors and interests. Canadians are not ideologically oriented. The majority of Canadian voters are pragmatic. Many Canadian voters will decide their voting decision on the final day of the election. To the surprise of many, some Canadians might vote for a party that they dislike.”
